NFL draft musings

Cue the Christmas music, for it’s the most wonderful time of the year! As someone who loves both college and pro football, it doesn’t get much better than the NFL draft. It is one of my most anticipated days of the year. I honestly enjoy it as much as the football season itself. The buildup to it all, including the NFL combine, gets fans all over the country in a tizzy, leading to tons of speculation, arguments and anxiety. Hope springs eternal at the NFL draft, where fans of downtrodden teams hope that this is the year their team nabs a player that is a difference maker, one that can turn around the fortunes of a moribund franchise. And there are some recent precedents to that. The Tennessee Titans were a real mess before they drafted Vince Young a couple of seasons ago. His addition energized the team and the fan base, and the Titans nearly made the post season in his rookie year. (Don't ask about year 2.) Just this past season running back Adrian Peterson had the Minnesota Vikings on the cusp of the playoffs as well. Of course, there is always the chance that a team will pick a cant-miss prospect in the draft that does just that - misses. Such mistakes can set teams back for a number of years. See Ryan Leaf or Tony Mandarich for examples.

As a fan of the St. Louis Rams, I have seen my fair share of bad drafts, including one cant-miss prospect (Lawrence Phillips) who not only missed, but also has kept the criminal justice system quite busy. The Rams have missed spectacularly by trying to pick the supposed best player available (see Jimmy Kennedy, 2003), by trying to fill a specific need (Robert Thomas, 2002) and even trying to find a new toy for an ego-driven head coach (Trung Canidate, 2000). Of course, not all of the first round draft picks have been bad for the Rams since the movie to St. Louis. The first ever St. Louis Rams' draft pick was DE Kevin Carter out of Florida, who had a nice career with the Rams and was a key member of the 1999-2000 Super Bowl winning team. Stud offensive tackle Orlando Pace (Ohio State) was the first pick of the Dick Vermeil led Rams in 1997. He is likely headed to the NFL Hall Of Fame, as is 1999 first round pick Torry Holt, a super smooth wide receiver from North Carolina State.

Of course, you can’t judge a draft by simply looking at the 1^st round picks. The later rounds are where you add depth to your team and it is here where the Rams have failed miserably. The Rams have gotten themselves into a bind by reaching for players that likely would have been there in later rounds, and by simply doing a poor job of scouting players. Current head coach Scott Linehan has 2 drafts under his belt, with decidedly mixed results - and that’s putting it kindly. But the Rams have a new man in charge of personnel this year, an actual football man rather than the money men who have somehow gotten way too much say in who the Rams select. Bill Devaney is a football guy, not a pencil pusher, so hopes are a little escalated this year in St. Louis as the draft approaches. Of course, that means the heat is really on Devaney, since the Rams own the 2^nd pick in the entire draft this year. Miss this pick, and the team may take a long while to recover.

The Rams, who finished 3-13 last year, have a lot of holes to fill. First among them, in my mind, is the offensive line, but the team is getting back some players who were injured last year (including Orlando Pace) and have added a fine guard in Jacob Bell, so that unit should definitely be improved somewhat. The Rams still need to address the O-line in the draft, but there should still be some fine linemen available in the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds, since the Rams have high picks in each. The other huge weakness on the team last year was the defensive pass rush, and it has not been addressed at all this offseason. The Rams have only 3 defensive ends under contract right now, and the best one of those, Leonard Little, is an aging veteran coming off an injury-plagued season. So it seems imperative that the Rams add a very good pass rusher with their 1^st pick. That leaves 2 options at this point: Virginia defensive end Chris Long and Ohio State defensive end/linebacker Vernon Gholston. Choosing between the two is something the Rams may very well face, if the Miami Dolphins, who own the 1^st overall pick don’t choose either player (It is thought that the Dolphins have great interest in Chris Long, but no one knows if they will pick him #1). Let’s say the Dolphins pick someone else or trade the pick to another team and they also pass on both players. If it comes down to Long or Gholston, who should be the pick for the Rams?

Both had stellar college careers and both can get to the QB. But they are not similar players. Gholston is a pass rushing specialist who excels coming off of the end and getting to the passer. He can play either DE or LB, but at either position, his #1 responsibility will be rushing the QB.
He brings a rare combination of speed and power to the table and his explosiveness is eye popping. Long, on the other hand, is more of a prototypical defensive end. He can get to the QB but also plays against the run very well. He’s bigger than Gholston and has a reputation as a fiery guy who never gives up on a play. While not quite in Gholston’s class as a pure athlete, he put up some stellar numbers at the combine as well and certainly does not lack for speed or power. He should be a major force on the line. So who should the Rams choose? Well, let’s look at the perceived negatives of each player. The biggest knock on Long is that he may have peaked, so to speak, that he may already be about as good as he is going to get. In other words, the upside may not be so great. Gholston, on the other hand, is only a junior in college and is thought to have lots of room to grow, especially technique wise. But he has detractors too, and it’s in an area that scares the heck out of me when it comes to spending the #2 overall pick. There are quite a few “experts,” even those who are fans of Gholston, who say that he is not always motivated, that he tends to take plays off. It is said that he can disappear for large chunks of a game. That’s scary, because no one questions Long’s motivation. As the son of NFL Hall Of Famer Howie Long, he has had a solid work ethic pounded into him. One of Long’s biggest pluses is that he goes non-stop, never giving up on a play. He is said to absolutely love football and is tenacious when on the field.

The Rams have had their share of defensive players with questionable motivation lately. Jimmie Kennedy stands out in particular. He had everything you want in a defensive tackle: the size, the athleticism and the successful college career. What he apparently didn’t have though was self-motivation. He never really appeared to have a love of the game. He went about his business in a lackadaisical way and that bled over to his play on the field. While no one can question Gholston’s work ethic (he’s obviously a workout warrior; he didn’t come up with that body and those workout numbers by accident), there are valid concerns that he may not be a guy who lives, breathes, sleeps and eats football. And that could effect his on field production. At the very least, it should raise a red flag. He is the better pure pass rusher, but Long is a good pass rusher who plays the run well and never gives up on a play. In my opinion, that makes Long the superior player and the safer pick. Sure, Vernon Gholston could become the next Lawrence Taylor and the Rams will have passed on a chance to have a truly spectacular, dominating player. But in Chris Long, they have a better chance at landing a sure-fire contributor, in my opinion. Of course, if Long is taken first overall, then this whole argument is moot. And I don’t think the Rams would be disappointed to take Gholston at #2. But I’d feel a little safer if we got Chris Long.

The Rams, who because of their horrid 2007 season get to pick very early in each round, also have a chance to add to what can only be described as a lacking corps of receivers. Gone is the great Isaac Bruce. Torry Holt is still around and when healthy he can still do spectacular things. But he is getting older, has lost a half-step and has serious concerns about his knee. #2 receiver Drew Bennett was a big disappointment last year in a number of ways. Someone should mention to him that actually catching the ball is paramount to being a good receiver. Some very good receivers should still be on the board when the Rams pick in the 2^nd round. I am hoping that’s where they go with their second pick. Cornerback is also a concern, if the whispers are true that Rams’ CB Fakhir Brown is going to be suspended for the season for violating the NFL’s drug policy again. Thanks, Fakhir. And as mentioned earlier, the Rams should really try to address depth on the offensive line at some point.

While the Rams are my team, each franchise (and their strategies) intrigues me. I love seeing where my favorite college players end up and also love the wheeling and dealing that is usually part of the activities. I’ll be glued to the TV in front of my computer all day long (and on day 2 as well), arguing with Mel Kiper and cursing Charter Cable because they don’t carry the NFL Network. Hopefully I’ll be happy with the Rams’ selections. And if I’m not, hopefully I’ll be wrong. Check back here for more football talk in the days leading up to the draft (and on draft day!) for more info and opinions. I plan on having a running blog going for the first round and on all Rams’ picks thereafter. Hope to see you then.